Not Safe Yet, Danica may still leave…
Posted 6 months, 1 week ago.
Posted by: Kohl
Bad news, today I’ve read on www.jayski.com, that Tony Stewart believes Danica Patrick is serious about moving to NASCAR. The good news is that he believes she’ll run the Indy car series for the next few seasons. This statement from Tony Stewart is a bit surprising, for me, because I’ve heard she’s been advised against the switch, and wasn’t going to do it.
According to Tony, she will run a partial Nationwide/Truck schedule while running a full time Indy car schedule. This comes AFTER Michael Andretti has said he will sign her for next season. The decision for her to return to AGR instead of Target Ganassi now makes more sense, to me.
Even though Ganassi has a NASCAR program, it’s not a very good one. Even though she could run both series with him, it would not be in a very good Nationwide or Cup program. Michael Andretti is having sponsorship problems with AGR, and so he will want to keep Danica, even if it’s a short term deal and she runs NASCAR during it. Even though AGR is a weaker IRL program, if her goal is to run NASCAR in the future, it might make more sense. Also, remember Michael Andretti has recently said he feels that the Indy 500 start time should be moved back to 11:00 AM.
If this is true, it also means she believes she will find a better team for NASCAR then Ganassi. So, which teams could they be? Hendricks, Stewart Haas, Gibbs, Roush, Childress, and Penske are the teams that are clearly better than Ganassi, so it’s likely one of them. Here’s the breakdown of those teams, in terms of Danica’s joining them.
Hendricks Motor sports: Hendrick is the dominate team in NASCAR. In there “down years” they still can win the championship. They have a Nationwide program run by Dale Earnhart Junior, Junior Motor sports. Junior Motorsports could expand to run a second car for Danica, or she could run in the 88, which doesn’t have a driver for next year. Likely, they would want to have the car Danica runs be a full time team, even if she doesn’t run all of the races, so that she will have a locked in qualifying spot. On the cup side, a team is allowed to run a part time 5th car for up to seven races for a rookie, so that would get her cup time. Also, Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon are likely to retire in the next few years, so that would be her opening into the team. But, it is also likely Hendrick doesn’t really want her, and would likely replace Mark and Jeff with Kasey Kane, Brad Keselowski, Montoya, or Kevin Harvick.
Stewart Haas: Stewart Haas doesn’t have a Nationwide team, but, they could just loan her out to Junior Motorsports. On the cup side, there are two openings for the team, and the could run a partial third car for her. Curt Cavin in particular she’s this as a likely option. But, many wonder whether she and Stewart could work together, and that Chevy doesn’t have the money to make it worth it to Stewart.
Joe Gibbs Racing: Joe Gibbs has the most dominate Nationwide team in the series. If she ran with them, she’d have a good chance to win a race next year. The problem is if she run’s with them the expectations would go up in an extreme way. Still, the Nationwide program is so good, it makes a ton of sense, because she could be completive from the start. On the Cup side, they are a three car team, and have room to expand by one. Plus, Denny Hamlin could always leave the team in the near future, and that would open up a seat for her. The problem with this idea is that Kyle Bush and Danica could be a very AGR type combination. Danica does deal with Marco, Tony Kannan, and Michel Andretti daily, so maybe she could work with Kyle Bush. The other issue is Joey Lagano, who is there current rookie project. They may be so focused on him that they wouldn’t want to deal with Danica. Lastly, Toyota might slip some money to help make this one happen.
Roush Fenway Racing: Roush Fenway racing has a very well developed development program, involving the Truck and Nationwide series. The issue would be they have many drivers that are being developed, but, the money Danica would bring could make it work anyways. They are a good Nationwide program, with Carl Edwards second in Nationwide points to Joe Gibb’s Kyle Bush. Cup wise, Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle likely will retire in the next 5 years, and David Ragan could easily be let go for her. UPS wanted Ragan over anyone else Roush has, but, I’m sure for Danica they wouldn’t mind the switch. I could see her and Carl Edwards not working well together, and that could be a problem, since he is the future of that organization.
Richard Childress Racing: RCR is a team that is struggling now, but they are still an elite level team. They have a good Nationwide program, and are currently developing Childress’s grandson Austin Dillon. On the Cup side, Casey Mears is very replaceable, and Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer could always leave the team.
Penske: This one is not happening, because if it were Danica would join their IRL team.
Ganassi: Obvious.
Red Bull: No Nationwide team, but they will make partnerships with other programs; look at the development of Scott Speed. They have a history of rushing open wheel drivers, and that could be either good or bad, depending on how you take that. Also, they have said that they will not expand beyond two cars without outside sponsorship, Danica could bring that. Red Bull would also aggressively market Danica, and that would be good for NASCAR. They are a good team, but not great, so I don’t think she’s going to go here.
Michael Waltrip Racing: They’ve got a Nationwide program, but, this team isn’t good enough for Danica to join. If she were planning on joining a mid level team, she would join Ganassi and at least get the good IRL equipment.
Any other team: Teams left off the list are left off because I forgot them, and that means its likely Danica will forget them too.
I really don’t know which one she will ultimately pick. All of the scenarios make sense to me, so it could be any. I think if possible the Hendricks or Gibbs options would be best, but they may not be possible. It’s also an option for her to stay in the IRL, but, I think Stewart’s comments, plus the her likely staying with AGR point to her leaving in the near future. This is not good for the IRL, but, that’s another article.
She was ALWAYS going to leave Indycar for Nascar, it was just a matter of when she felt comfortable enough in a stock car to do it and with what team she’d be racing with.
As I’ve told Paul a few weeks ago on another site (My name is IRL, I think), I fully expected her to do both for a year or so before moving to Cup full-time and when she does move to Cup, it’ll be in the 5 car at Hendrick or at Stewart-Haas in 2011 or 2012.
I don’t think the 5 car is as likely, too be honest. I think Kasey Kane or Juan Montoya, or Kevin Harvick or Clint Bowyer or Brad Keselowski are more likely. Hendrick doesn’t need the money from Danica, sponsors want to be on his team, and Junior provides any extra sponsorship money he would need.
To me, Childress and Roush feel more likely, although Gibbs makes sense too. Again, Gibbs has a great Nationwide car, and in it Danica could easily win races, but, the pressure would be even higher.
Also, do you really think Danica and Stewert could work together?
Dylan,
Smoke wouldn’t be going through all that trouble to invite her to his race shop to answer her questions about Nascar if he didn’t care whether she succeeded or failed, he’s got a lot on his plate and doesn’t HAVE TO deal with her on any level.
She respects him and has said so numerous times, he respects her and has said so numerous times.
Whether that translates into her having success in stock car racing, who knows, but he’s one of the few there who would be willing to give her the chance to show what she could do.
Remeber, though, she vistited lot’s of shops. Still, Stewert can give her the best advice, and being affiliated with Hendrick will give her access to Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, Dale Junior, and Jimmie Johnson, so she’ll learn from the best.
In my humble opinion, she would be nuts to try to do the entire IRL series and also work in some Nascar events. The competition level is so high in both series, that it seems to me you have to pick one or the other and be totally dedicated 24/7 to that series if you want to be successful.
Bottom line, every race driver wants to get an Indy 500 win under their belt, but Nascar is where the big money is. It is a difficult choice.
She’s doing lower tier stuff, Trucks, ARCA, and Nationwide. ARCA isn’t that good of competion, I truly belive Danica could POTENTIALY win her first race at Daytona in ARCA. She’ll be on a good team for ARCA, so that won’t be hard.
Good points. The next question would be how thrilled Michael Andretti would be with a driver who is not fully committed to the IRL but is trying to ease into Nascar and out of the IRL. Should be fun to follow.
Micheal put’s up with Marco, he put’s up with Hedeki, he put’s up with Danica now, so I don’t thikn it matters. Besides, he needs the sponsorship money.
Very true! He will take the Motorola money and bite his lip.